April 2006 as I set at my desk at a large national banks mortgage dept
I could not help telling my co workers that many housing markets in the us
our BUBBLE MKTS we discussed this as my large commercial bank
employer notified our dept that our jobs had been outsourced to the Philippines
and Costa Rica.
I personal found it real hard to believe that a 900 sq ft 2bd 1 bath home
was worth 900k or that a 500 sq ft 2bd 1 bath apt converted twnhome condo
is worth $350k to 600K the prices I am quoting are for los angeles real estate
in the the valley in apr of 06, My last few yrs at this particular bank gave me the
opportunity to see the nations mortgage market real up close and personal.
And What I saw was utterly "SHOCKING" 1 I supervised the servicing of consumer
helocs are whats considered home equity loans as well as 1st mortg.
And two things stood out they were a lot of floating rate loans tied to the prime rate.
And the majority of the funds customer were taking out were used for consumer type
shopping or to pay monthly bills.
After 911 the fed cut rates to the bone to keep the economy going so the rates offered from
2002 thru 2004 were extremely low compared to the prime avg rate, the kicker is that all the
helocs we serviced and there were at least a million
had a ceiling rate of 18% the primes record high.
Today those helocs are a ticking time bomb nation wide with other institutions as well. The fed
is under tremendous pressure to raise rates,with the Chinese alone sitting on nearly 1
TRILLION US DOLLARS$ from financing record deficits its only a matter of time before
they began demanded higher rates on money invested or threaten to dump dollars
for higher yielding currencies either way it spells bad news for the us economy
as stated prior the prime rate can be adjusted to 18% imagine the debt load
and strain that will have on the avg American family watching there monthly payment
going from lest say $1500.00 a month to $2500.00 or more the ones that will be hurt the most
will be those in BUBBLE MKTS like los angeles were the consumer will see
higher debt payments but lower house value i predict you will see many houses
upside down in the los angeles area before its all over thats were the loan or
loans you have taken on your property is higher than what your house is worth
so there will be no refi quick fix.
But whats most troubling is that as an educated guess i am going to say the American
economy is at least 45% real estate related so when the bubble burst its going to take a large chunk of the economy with it.
I would going further in bubble markets cause and effect but that would take a entire post on the subject.
WHY YOU SHOULD BUY GOLD AND SILVER NOW!
I also predict that not only the Chinese but other nations will play out the scenario
described above squeeze for higher rates and eventually dump dollars for higher yielding and more inflationary stable currencies the dollar has loss 98% of its value
since conception whole countries are going to get out before it losses its last
2 PERCENT.